2015 College Football Bowl Predictions

College football bowl season is upon us and that means it is prediction time. During the course of the 2015 College Football season I have used College Sports Reference’s SRS ratings plus home field advantage numbers to build a prediction model. Since Week 5 when I began tracking the model has predicted straight up winners at a 73.7% clip. Here are my models predictions for the 2015 Bowl Games. I update the results below as the games are played.


The model went 29-12 during the bowl season good for a 70.7% win rate. It finished in the 99% percentile on ESPN Bowl Mania straight poll and 94% for the confidence poll.

Note: The Alamo Bowl pick was switched from TCU to Oregon after Trevone Boykin was suspended from the game

Bowl Location Date & Time Team A Team B Pick
Cure Bowl Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL 12:00 PM, December 19 San Jose State Georgia State San Jose State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl University Stadium, Albuquerque NM 2:00 PM, December 19 Arizona New Mexico Arizona
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas NV 3:30 PM, December 19 Brigham Young Utah Utah
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl, Montogomery AL 5:30 PM, December 19 Ohio Appalachian Stae Appalachian State
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans LA 9:00 PM, December 19 Arkansas State Louisiana Tech Arkansas State
Miami Beach Bowl Marlins Park, Miami FL 2:30 PM, December 21 Western Kentucky South Florida Western Kentucky
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium, Boise ID 3:30 PM, December 22 Akron Utah State Akron
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium, Boca Raton FL 7:00 PM, December 22 Toledo Temple Toledo
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA 4:30 PM, December 23 Boise State Northern Illinois Boise State
GoDaddy Bowl Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile AL 8:00 PM, December 23 Georgia Southern Bowling Green Bowling Green
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl Robinson National Stadium, Nassau Bahamas 12:00 PM, December 24 Middle Tennessee Western Michigan Western Michigan
Hawai’i Bowl Aloha Stadium, Honolulu HI 8:00 PM, December 24 San Diego State Cincinnati San Diego State
St. Petersburg Bowl Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg FL 11:00 AM, December 26 Connecticut Marshall Marshall
Hyundai Sun Bowl Sun Bowl, El Paso TX 2:00 PM, December 26 Miami FL Washington State Miami FL
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl Cotton Bowl, Dallas TX 2:20 PM, December 26 Washington Southern Mississippi Washington
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium, New York NY 3:30 PM, December 26 Indiana Duke Duke
Camping World Independence Bowl Independence Stadium, Shreveport LA 5:45 PM, December 26 Tulsa Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Bowl Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara Ca 9:15 PM, December 26 California Los Angeles Nebraska California Los Angeles
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis MD 2:30 PM, December 28 Pittsburgh Navy Navy
Quick Lane Bowl Ford Field, Detroit 5:00 PM, December 28 Central Michigan Minnesota Minnesota
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth TX 2:00 PM, December 28 California Air Force California
Russell Athletic Bowl Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL 5:30 PM, December 28 North Carolina Baylor North Carolina
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium, Tucson Arizona 7:30 PM, December 28 Nevada Colorado State Colorado State
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl NRG Stadium, Houston TX 9:00 PM, December 28 Louisiana State Texas Tech Louisiana State
Birmingham Bowl Legion Field, Birmingham AL 12:00 PM, December 30 Auburn Memphis Memphis
Belk Bowl Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC 3:30 PM, December 30 North Carolina State Mississippi State Mississippi State
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl LP Field, Nashville TN 7:00 PM, December 30 Texas A&M Louisville Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA 10:30 PM, December 30 Southern California Wisconsin Southern California
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Georgia Dome, Atlanta GA 12:00 PM, December 31 Houston Florida State Florida State
Capital One Orange Bowl Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens FL 4:00 PM, December 31 Oklahoma Clemson Oklahoma
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX 8:00 PM, December 31 Michigan State Alabama Alabama
Outback Bowl Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL 12:00 PM, January 1 Northwestern Tennessee Tennessee
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando FL 1:00 PM, January 1 Michigan Florida Michigan
Battle Frog Fiesta Bowl University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale AZ 1:00 PM, January 1 Notre Dame Ohio State Ohio State
Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual Rose Bowl, Pasadena CA 5:00 PM, January 1 Stanford Iowa Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans LA 8:30 PM, January 1 Oklahoma State Mississippi Mississippi
TaxSlayer Bowl EverBank Field, Jacksonville FL 12:00 PM, January 2 Pennsylvania State Georgia Georgia
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis TN 3:20 PM, January 2 Kansas State Arkansas Arkansas
Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome, San Antonio TX 6:45 PM, January 2 Oregon Texas Christian Oregon
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl Chase Field, Phoenix AZ 10:15 PM, January 2 West Virginia Arizona State West Virginia
National Championship presented by AT&T University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale AZ 8:30 PM, January 11 Clemson Alabama Alabama