Predicting College Football Rankings Based on Recruiting

Wednesday was National Signing Day and the culmination of the 2016 recruiting cycle in College Football. There are still a few recruits who have yet to sign but or the most part the dust has settled. In a previous post I plotted every teams SRS rating against their five year weighted recruiting rating for the last five seasons. Using the regression function lm in R I found an equation for predicting a teams SRS rating using its five year weighted recruiting rating.

Using this formula I have listed every Division 1 team and their predicted rating below. To be clear these predictions are based solely on recruiting and do not factor in things such as coaching and injuries, which play a big factor in a teams final rating. Also the numbers may change as the final few recruits commit. But without further ado here are the predictions.

 

Team Pred SRS
Air Force -4.33
Akron -6.18
Alabama 18.03
Alabama Birmingham -15.09
Appalachain State -5.95
Arizona 5.23
Arizona State 6.82
Arkansas 7.56
Arkansas State -2.18
Army -7.67
Auburn 13.35
Ball State -4.26
Baylor 6.86
Boise State 2.24
Boston College 0.52
Bowling Green -3.00
Brigham Young 1.09
Buffalo -6.08
California 4.66
California Los Angeles 11.93
Central Florida -4.24
Central Michigan -0.06
Charlotte -6.82
Cincinnati 1.90
Clemson 11.26
Colordao 1.33
Colorado State -3.52
Connecticut -1.70
Duke 1.72
East Carolina -0.70
Eastern Michigan -5.50
Florida 13.36
Florida Atlantic -2.10307604
Florida International -3.72387574
Florida State 14.13938474
Fresno State -1.76471698
Georgia 13.2127216
Georgia Southern -7.45916106
Georgia State -7.52754496
Georgia Tech 2.13025514
Hawaii -3.0621669
Houston 1.04154934
Idaho -6.54481022
Illinois 2.24421054
Indiana 3.62651406
Iowa 2.9826927
Iowa State 1.80765156
Kansas 1.74839262
Kansas State 1.83406704
Kent State -5.37409704
Kentucky 5.92598266
Louisiana Lafayette -2.60259298
Louisiana Monroe -6.26923856
Louisiana State 14.36329804
Louisiana Tech -2.25021602
Louisville 4.86070754
Marshall 1.34111666
Maryland 4.77322092
Massachusetts -5.51321004
Memphis -1.69478738
Miami FL 10.79813566
Miami OH -3.90339014
Michigan 11.43380212
Michigan State 6.72647404
Middle Tenessee -2.94688966
Minnesota 1.7714502
Mississippi 10.56128112
Mississippi State 7.35406022
Missouri 5.57991642
Navy -5.25888376
Nebraska 6.85140924
Nevada -2.23748798
Nevada Las Vegas -3.98837166
New Mexico -3.24481534
New Mexico State -5.80003866
North Carolina 6.48207222
North Carolina State 4.10750392
North Texas -4.20576104
Northern Illinois -3.6692539
Northwestern 3.20082828
Notre Dame 12.8044436
Ohio -4.31715804
Ohio State 15.58136294
Oklahoma 10.67637714
Oklahoma State 6.2242388
Old Dominion -5.03536488
Oregon 9.45814168
Oregon State 3.34963122
Pennsylvania State 7.1295926
Pittsburgh 4.3942899
Purdue 1.8170217
Rice -2.96367916
Rutgers 3.71985302
San Diego State 0.18551936
San Jose State -3.33942284
South Alabama -4.22241196
South Carolina 9.34185174
South Florida 3.29878302
Southern California 13.27082926
Southern Methodist -0.54037334
Southern Mississippi -1.30036738
Stanford 8.2273594
Syracuse 1.70922778
Temple -0.03874572
Tennessee 11.0281678
Texas 11.51114042
Texas A&M 12.821393
Texas Christian 5.2728871
Texas El Paso -6.79068312
Texas San Antonio -5.54137376
Texas State -3.41875456
Texas Tech 5.08259544
Toledo -1.40249018
Troy -4.82025674
Tulane -2.05055422
Tulsa -2.05025574
Utah 3.52618214
Utah State -4.3939207
Vanderbilt 4.97258424
Virginia 5.834296
Virginia Tech 7.7452076
Wake Forest 1.26481238
Washington 7.57248362
Washington State 3.07000876
West Virginia 5.61721576
Western Kentucky -3.13110512
Western Michigan -1.90364876
Wisconsin 4.62440732
Wyoming -5.2490126